AAPL Ipad Sales

So I am looking at the new Ipad and how it will affect the stock of AAPL and think it will be disappointing. Apple said first day sales were 300k which is about half of what a great first day of sales would have been, based on analysts estimates of 600-700k, and on par with what they estimated to be average. Another negative comment was that 75% of the first day sales were pre-order customers so only about 75k were people buying on "impulse" and might be waiting for the 3g version like myself.

I personally was at a shopping mall that first day and stopped by the apple store. There were people playing with the demo Ipads, but no hectic line or chaos as expected on the first day of release. A few customers walked out with new Ipads, but most were just there to check it out. They also didn't have the 3g version which most likely negatively affected their sales.

Apple tried to play up the "1 million downloads" to put a positive twist on the launch, but most users know that people only pay for about half of these and mostly download all the free apps they can before actually buying any.

Verdict:
I see the Ipad adding to Apple's bottom line through the sale of devices and apps, though not as significantly as the Iphone did upon it's debut. I believe the stock to be pricing in a larger impact from the Ipad than will actually be experienced in the next quarters earnings. Dare I say that Apple will not beat earnings estimates for the first time in a while? I say it will depend on the sales of the 3g device later this month.

My recommendation: If you have a nice profit on AAPL it might be time to take some off the table at the $245-250 level.

For the record: I personally don't own any AAPL positions, but I am looking at bearish options plays and will be buying an Ipad when the 3g version hits stores.